Author warns state, federal gun-control candidates of being hit by Brady Effect

One piece of political e-mail I received last week piqued my interest.

It was titled, “Democrats should fear the Brady Effect,” written Oct. 29 by Brad O’Leary for the Web site of American Thinker. O’Leary played on an election concept known as the Bradley Effect, where whites tell pollsters they will support a black candidate but cast ballots for a white candidate once inside the voting booth. It is named after Tom Bradley, a black candidate who lost his bid for California governor in 1982.

O’Leary writes that it is not the Bradley Effect that supporters of Barack Obama should fear but rather the Brady Effect. This named for the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, which has endorsed candidates who agree with its goal of “passing sensible gun laws.”

It isn’t the ‘Bradley effect’ Democrats should fear, but something else. Call it the ‘Brady effect,’ named after the one of the radical gun-ban lobbies in America, the Brady Campaign,” O’Leary writes. “In 1982, gun-banners were successful in placing an initiative on the California ballot dubbed Proposition 15, which would have essentially banned handgun sales and mandated gun registration statewide. Bradley supported the handgun ban and his opponent, George Deukmejian, opposed it. Polls showed that Prop 15 enjoyed early support in the campaign season. But that wouldn’t last.

“The National Rifle Association, in partnership with California state and local gun rights groups and grass-roots activists, sprang into action, educating voters about the dangers of Prop 15 and how their Second Amendment rights hung in the balance,” O’Leary writes. “By Election Day, Prop 15 had gone from having majority support to being radioactive. Not only did Republicans oppose it but so did Reagan Democrats and an overwhelming majority of the state’s law enforcement community. … Proposition 15 lost by a whopping 63 percent to 37 percent, and polls after the election showed that a clear majority of Californians who voted ‘no’ on Prop 15 also voted against Tom Bradley in favor of George Deukmejian.”

The Brady Campaign announced that it has endorsed (among other federal and state candidates) Barack Obama for president, Joe Biden for vice president (over the John McCain/Sarah Palin ticket), 6th Congressional District candidate Jill Morgenthaler (over U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam), 10th Congressional District candidate U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk (over Dan Seals) and 46th Illinois House District candidate Gary Nowak (over state Rep. Dennis Reboletti).

The campaign’s latest endorsement is for 13th Congressional District candidate Scott Harper (over Steve Alesch and U.S. Rep. Judy Biggert).

“Scott Harper has proven himself to be a strong advocate for his community as a successful small business owner, workers’ rights advocate, and volunteer tutor and mentor,” Paul Helmke, president of the Brady Campaign, said in an e-mail. “He understands the need to keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people, and he will fight to keep our families safe by supporting common sense gun laws in Congress.”

Between the economy, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and how to approach tax policy, I’m not certain where the issue of gun control is going to fit in the minds of voters. Protecting gun rights is very important, so I think this should weigh heavily on the electorate.

But there’s quite a bit for everyone to take in while pondering their election choices. We’ll know tomorrow night how much the gun issue played into Election ’08.

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